EXPLAINING VARIATION IN AMERICAN LOBSTER (HOMARUS AMERICANUS) AND SNOW CRAB (CHIONOECETES OPILIO) ABUNDANCE IN THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this thesis I assessed the causes of long-term changes in two large, commercially important decapod crustacean populations, American lobster (Homarus americanus) and snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio), in the northwest (NW) Atlantic Ocean. By combining available time-series data, including commercial landings, research surveys, and local ecological knowledge (LEK), I explored the causes of an observed ecosystem shift in the NW Atlantic (~1950–2009) which entailed a region-wide decline of groundfish and an increase in benthic invertebrates, including these decapods. Three hypotheses were examined to explain the increase in decapod abundance: (1) the predation hypothesis, whereby a decrease in predatory groundfish led to an increase in their decapod prey (top-down effects); (2) the climate hypothesis, whereby changes in temperature or other climatic variables helped to increase decapod numbers (bottom-up effects); and (3) the anthropogenic hypothesis, whereby changes in fishing pressure drove decapod population dynamics. I explored these hypotheses separately for lobster and snow crab, which may experience different ecological and commercial pressures. \nFirst, I investigated the interactions between predatory groundfish and lobster in the inshore region of southwest Nova Scotia. Long-term fisheries-independent abundance indices for lobsters and their predators are available for Gulf of Maine (GOM) waters in the USA, but not in Canada. To address research gaps I designed and executed a survey to collect the LEK of lobster fishermen fishing in the Canadian GOM. Forty-two fishermen were interviewed. Corresponding survey results from the USA were compared to the LEK results. Both sources provided evidence for a top-down effect (predation release), contributing to observed increases in GOM lobster abundance and landings. \nSecond, I explored relationships between lobster abundance and landings in the NW Atlantic as they may relate to temporal changes in predators, temperature, climate (North Atlantic Oscillation Index, NAOI), and fishing. Available landings data and fisheries-independent abundance estimates were collated to investigate trends in lobster abundance and catch. Links between lobster, groundfish, temperature and climate indices were explored using mixed effects models. Results offered partial support for the predation hypothesis, namely in the waters off Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, and southern New England as well as broad support for a climate effect on early life stages. This effect appeared related to a region-wide climate signal, the NAOI, but was independent of changes in water temperature. Fishing effort appeared to be following lobster abundance, rather than regulating abundance in a consistent way.\nThird, variation in snow crab abundance was examined through meta-analysis of time-series data of cod and crab abundance and temperature. Temperature had opposing effects on the two species: snow crab abundance was negatively correlated with temperature whereas cod and temperature were positively related. Controlling for the effect of temperature, the analysis revealed significant negative interactions between snow crab and cod abundance, with cod leading snow crab up to a five-year lag. Results indicate that snow crab is largely influenced by temperature during early post-settlement years and becomes increasingly regulated by top-down mechanisms as they approach fishery recruitment. \nOverall, I conclude that both climate and predation can act as population controls on large decapod populations, but these variables affect decapods at different life stages.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".