Observations of predictive skill for real-time Deterministic Sea Waves from the WaMoS II
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OceanWaveS GmbH has been developing a prototype system, based on standard non-coherent X-band navigational radars, capable of predicting future sea surface elevations. Combined with a vessel hydrodynamic simulator, this system will forecast ship motions. Applications for such a system include offshore operations, e.g. crane lifts, LNG, cargo and personnel transfers. The forecasts may be assimilated into automated control systems; e.g. floating wind turbines or dynamic positioning systems, or used within Decision Support Systems. This article presents correlation analysis results between the predicted sea surface elevations and vessel-mounted reference sensors for three independent sea trials. Despite neglecting vessel hydrodynamics, correlations of forecasts to measured references of 80% are achieved for T+60 seconds predictions for all sea trials. The prediction horizon is observed up to 180 seconds of forecast.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".