Smoking Gun or Circumstantial Evidence? Comparison of Statistical Learning Methods using Functional Annotations for Prioritizing Risk Variants
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Although technology has triumphed in facilitating routine genome sequencing, new challenges have been created for the data-analyst. Genome-scale surveys of human variation generate volumes of data that far exceed capabilities for laboratory characterization. By incorporating functional annotations as predictors, statistical learning has been widely investigated for prioritizing genetic variants likely to be associated with complex disease. We compared three published prioritization procedures, which use different statistical learning algorithms and different predictors with regard to the quantity, type and coding. We also explored different combinations of algorithm and annotation set. As an application, we tested which methodology performed best for prioritizing variants using data from a large schizophrenia meta-analysis by the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium. Results suggest that all methods have considerable (and similar) predictive accuracies (AUCs 0.64-0.71) in test set data, but there is more variability in the application to the schizophrenia GWAS. In conclusion, a variety of algorithms and annotations seem to have a similar potential to effectively enrich true risk variants in genome-scale datasets, however none offer more than incremental improvement in prediction. We discuss how methods might be evolved for risk variant prediction to address the impending bottleneck of the new generation of genome re-sequencing studies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.149 | 0.258 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".