Increased Mortality with Elevated Plasma Endothelin-1 in Acute Heart Failure: An ASCEND-HF Biomarker Substudy
Bibliographic record
Abstract
AIMS: Endothelin-1 (ET-1) is an endogenous vasoconstrictor implicated in pulmonary and systemic hypertension, as well as ventricular dysfunction, through effects on vascular smooth muscle, the kidneys, and cardiomyocytes. We aimed to determine the association between serial ET-1 levels and acute heart failure patient outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: We measured plasma ET-1 at baseline, 48-72 h, and 30 days in a cohort of 872 patients hospitalized with acute heart failure from the ASCEND-HF trial (randomized to nesiritide vs. placebo), and its association with 30-day mortality, 180-day mortality, in-hospital death or worsening heart failure, and 30-day mortality or rehospitalization. Median ET-1 was 7.6 [interquartile range (IQR) 5.9-10] pg/mL at baseline, 6.3 (IQR 4.9-8.1) pg/mL at 48-72 h, and 5.9 (IQR 4.7-7.9) pg/mL at 30 days (P < 0.001). Baseline and 48-72 h ET-1 were found to be independently associated with 180-day mortality in a multivariable analysis [hazard ratio (HR) 1.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3-2.0, P < 0.001 and HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.2-1.9, P = 0.001, respectively, log-transformed]. ET-1 that was measured at 48-72 h was also independently associated with death or worsening heart failure prior to discharge [odds ratio (OR) 1.6, 95% CI 1.03-2.4, P = 0.03]. These independent associations remained significant after including NT-proBNP in the multivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS: We observed an independent association between elevated ET-1 and short-term in-hospital clinical outcomes and 180-day mortality in hospitalized patients with acute heart failure ET-1 provided additional prognostic information which was incremental to that yielded by NT-proBNP.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".