The absence of an Atlantic imprint on the multidecadal variability of wintertime European temperature
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Northern Hemisphere climate responds sensitively to multidecadal variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST). It is therefore surprising that an imprint of such variability is conspicuously absent in wintertime western European temperature, despite that Europe's climate is strongly influenced by its neighbouring ocean, where multidecadal variability in basin-average SST persists in all seasons. Here we trace the cause of this missing imprint to a dynamic anomaly of the atmospheric circulation that masks its thermodynamic response to SST anomalies. Specifically, differences in the pathways Lagrangian particles take to Europe during anomalous SST winters suppress the expected fluctuations in air-sea heat exchange accumulated along those trajectories. Because decadal variability in North Atlantic-average SST may be driven partly by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the atmosphere's dynamical adjustment to this mode of variability may have important implications for the European wintertime temperature response to a projected twenty-first century AMOC decline.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".