Linking Isotopes and Panmixia: High Within-Colony Variation in Feather δ2H, δ13C, and δ15N across the Range of the American White Pelican
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Complete panmixia across the entire range of a species is a relatively rare phenomenon; however, this pattern may be found in species that have limited philopatry and frequent dispersal. American white pelicans (Pelecanus erythrorhyncos) provide a unique opportunity to examine the role of long-distance dispersal in facilitating gene flow in a species recently reported as panmictic across its broad breeding range. This species is also undergoing a range expansion, with new colonies arising hundreds of kilometers outside previous range boundaries. In this study, we use a multiple stable isotope (δ2H, δ13C, δ15N) approach to examine feather isotopic structuring at 19 pelican colonies across North America, with the goal of establishing an isotopic basemap that could be used for assigning individuals at newly established breeding sites to source colonies. Within-colony isotopic variation was extremely high, exceeding 100‰ in δ2H within some colonies (with relatively high variation also observed for δ13C and δ15N). The high degree of within-site variation greatly limited the utility of assignment-based approaches (42% cross-validation success rate; range: 0-90% success). Furthermore, clustering algorithms identified four likely isotopic clusters; however, those clusters were generally unrelated to geographic location. Taken together, the high degree of within-site isotopic variation and lack of geographically-defined isotopic clusters preclude the establishment of an isotopic basemap for American white pelicans, but may indicate that a high incidence of long-distance dispersal is facilitating gene flow, leading to genetic panmixia.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".