Influence of Climate Variability on Extreme Ocean Surface Wave Heights Assessed from ERA-Interim and ERA-20C
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Extreme ocean surface wave heights significantly affect coastal structures and offshore activities and impact many vulnerable populations of low-lying islands. Therefore, better understanding of ocean wave height variability plays an important role in potentially reducing risk in such regions. In this study, global impacts of natural climate variability such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on extreme significant wave height (SWH) are analyzed using ERA-Interim (1980–2014) and ECMWF twentieth-century reanalysis (ERA-20C; 1952–2010) datasets for December–February (DJF). The nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) analysis is used to determine the influence of natural climate variability on DJF maxima of SWH (Hmax), wind speed (Wmax), and mean sea level pressure gradient amplitude (Gmax). The major ENSO influence on Hmax is found over the northeastern North Pacific (NP), with increases during El Niño and decreases during La Niña, and its counter responses are observed in coastal regions of the western NP, which are consistently observed in both Wmax and Gmax responses. The Hmax response to the PDO occurs over similar regions in the NP as those associated with ENSO but with much weaker amplitude. Composite analysis of different ENSO and PDO phase combinations reveals stronger (weaker) influences when both variability modes are of the same (opposite) phase. Furthermore, significant NAO influence on Hmax, Wmax, and Gmax is observed throughout Icelandic and Azores regions in relation to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. Overall, the response of extreme SWH to natural climate variability modes is consistent with seasonal mean responses.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".