Continental-Scale Increase in Lake and Stream Phosphorus: Are Oligotrophic Systems Disappearing in the United States?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We describe continental-scale increases in lake and stream total phosphorus (TP) concentrations, identified through periodic probability surveys of thousands of water bodies in the conterminous U.S. The increases, observed over the period 2000-2014 were most notable in sites in relatively undisturbed catchments and where TP was initially low (e.g., less than 10 μg L(-1)). Nationally, the percentage of stream length in the U.S. with TP ≤ 10 μg L(-1) decreased from 24.5 to 10.4 to 1.6% from 2004 to 2009 to 2014; the percentage of lakes with TP ≤ 10 μg L(-1) decreased from 24.9 to 6.7% between 2007 and 2012. Increasing TP concentrations appear to be ubiquitous, but their presence in undeveloped catchments suggests that they cannot be entirely attributed to either point or common non-point sources of TP.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".