Changing Age Demographics of Inflammatory Bowel Disease in Ontario, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: International cohort studies have reported increased incidence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in recent years, and Canada has among the highest rates of IBD in the world. This study assessed incidence and prevalence of IBD in Ontario, the most populous province of Canada, to determine changing trends in age of onset. METHODS: We used a population-based cohort derived from validated health administrative data consisting of all Ontario residents living with IBD from 1999 to 2008. We determined trends over time using Poisson regression analysis, assessing rates in 10-year age groups, children, adults, and the elderly. RESULTS: In 2008, 68,071 people were living with IBD among 12,738,350 people (standardized prevalence 534.3 per 100,000 people). Between 1999 and 2008, standardized IBD incidence increased from 21.3 to 26.2 per 100,000 (2.3% per yr, P < 0.0001). Incidence of Crohn's increased from 9.6 to 12.1 per 100,000 (1.9% per yr, P < 0.0001). Ulcerative colitis incidence increased from 10.7 to 12.1 per 100,000 (2.0% per yr, P < 0.0001). For IBD, incidence increased significantly in people younger than 10 years of age (9.7% per yr, P < 0.0001), 10 to 19 years of age (3.8% per yr, P < 0.0001), 30 to 39 years of age (1.8% per yr, P = 0.0006), 40 to 49 years of age (2.8% per yr, P = 0.0001), and 50 to 59 years of age (2.8% per yr, P < 0.0001). Incidence was stable in patients older than 65 years of age at diagnosis (-0.1% per yr, P = 0.73). Although incidence did not change significantly over time in adults 20 to 29 years, IBD incidence peaked in this age group. CONCLUSIONS: Ontario has among the highest prevalence of IBD in the world. Incidence of IBD increased between 1999 and 2008, owing to increased incidence in children and adults, with stable rates in elderly people. These findings demonstrate the changing age demographics and growing burden of IBD in Ontario, Canada.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".