Ambient Particulate Matter Air Pollution Exposure and Mortality in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Cohort
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Outdoor fine particulate matter (≤ 2.5 μm; PM2.5) has been identified as a global health threat, but the number of large U.S. prospective cohort studies with individual participant data remains limited, especially at lower recent exposures. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to test the relationship between long-term exposure PM2.5 and death risk from all nonaccidental causes, cardiovascular (CVD), and respiratory diseases in 517,041 men and women enrolled in the National Institutes of Health-AARP cohort. METHODS: Individual participant data were linked with residence PM2.5 exposure estimates across the continental United States for a 2000-2009 follow-up period when matching census tract-level PM2.5 exposure data were available. Participants enrolled ranged from 50 to 71 years of age, residing in six U.S. states and two cities. Cox proportional hazard models yielded hazard ratio (HR) estimates per 10 μg/m3 of PM2.5 exposure. RESULTS: PM2.5 exposure was significantly associated with total mortality (HR = 1.03; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.05) and CVD mortality (HR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.05, 1.15), but the association with respiratory mortality was not statistically significant (HR = 1.05; 95% CI: 0.98, 1.13). A significant association was found with respiratory mortality only among never smokers (HR = 1.27; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.56). Associations with 10-μg/m3 PM2.5 exposures in yearly participant residential annual mean, or in metropolitan area-wide mean, were consistent with baseline exposure model results. Associations with PM2.5 were similar when adjusted for ozone exposures. Analyses of California residents alone also yielded statistically significant PM2.5 mortality HRs for total and CVD mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to PM2.5 air pollution was associated with an increased risk of total and CVD mortality, providing an independent test of the PM2.5-mortality relationship in a new large U.S. prospective cohort experiencing lower post-2000 PM2.5 exposure levels. CITATION: Thurston GD, Ahn J, Cromar KR, Shao Y, Reynolds HR, Jerrett M, Lim CC, Shanley R, Park Y, Hayes RB. 2016. Ambient particulate matter air pollution exposure and mortality in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health cohort. Environ Health Perspect 124:484-490; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509676.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".