Calculating Estimated Ultimate Recovery in Unconventional Petroleum Systems using Common ‘Recovery’ Segment Mapping. An example from the Montney Play, Western Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Transerv Energy has been using a spatial analysis workflow for new venture evaluation and land acquisition in the Montney Unconventional Resource Play, Western Canada. The resource potential of the play has been characterised by using calibrated reservoir characteristics and production performance from key wells, multi-attribute cross-plot analysis, and mapping of the key geological characteristics of the play. The approach has resulted in an interpretation of Estimated Ultimate Recovery for the Montney zone across the play fairway and has subsequently identified sweet-spots for new venture land acquisition. The Common ‘Recovery’ Segment Mapping approach takes principals from Common Risk Segment Mapping but applies them in estimating recovery potential, rather than risk, in the pervasive hydrocarbon system. Over 10,000 wells with digital logs have been interpreted throughout the Montney play fairway. A sequence stratigraphic interpretation of the formation has been conducted to create individual zones within the Montney for attribute analysis. Play element component maps, examples of which include Net Sand, Average Porosity, Average Sw, Net Pay, Pressure, and Liquids-Gas Ratio Yield, have been created for each zone. Hydrocarbon-in-place maps have been created using the appropriate components. Pressure and Effective Permeability, considered to be the primary geological drivers affecting recovery potential, have been used to create Common Recovery Segment Maps. The Common Recovery Segment Maps have subsequently been used to produce Estimated Ultimate Recovery and Recovery Factor Maps for the play. The availability of open-file digital well log data, and a disciplined approach of using calibrated well data and spatial analysis, has allowed a very small exploration team to characterise the Montney Unconventional Resource Play and acquire a technically driven new venture land position in a rapidly emerging play and competitive market for land access. The exceptional open-file database of British Columbia and Alberta provides an excellent example of how Common Recovery Segment mapping can help characterise and quantify the potential of pervasive Unconventional Resource Plays. The approach can be applied in the evaluation of pervasive unconventional petroleum systems worldwide.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".