Emergence of adult female <i>Sirex nigricornis</i> F. and <i>Sirex noctilio</i> F. (Hymenoptera: Siricidae) coincides with a decrease in daily minimum and maximum temperature
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The establishment and spread of Sirex noctilio F. (Hymenoptera: Siricidae), in northeastern North America necessitates reliable monitoring methods for this alien woodwasp pest of Pinus . The native congener, Sirex nigricornis F., is common across the eastern U.S.A. and has been studied as a proxy for S. noctilio . Predicting the emergence of S. noctilio is important for guiding monitoring efforts. Degree‐day models have been developed to predict flight phenology of S. noctilio and S. nigricornis across eastern North America. These model parameters were tested against three years of S. nigricornis collections from two locations in Arkansas. Neither of the proposed models accurately predicted emergence. The emergence of females for both S. noctilio and S. nigricornis was significantly negatively correlated with minimum and maximum temperature, indicating that emergence increases when minimum and maximum temperatures decrease. These results suggest that, as S. noctilio spreads south, where higher mean temperatures are present, it will emerge later in the season as the temperatures decline compared with the current northeastern population. We propose that monitoring for the spread of S. noctilio in the southeastern U.S.A. should begin slightly before daily temperatures are expected to decline (i.e. mid‐September).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".