The Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Is Not Increasing Over Time Despite Aging and Higher Comorbidity Burden of Kidney Transplant Recipients
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular death remains the leading cause of mortality in kidney transplant recipients. Cardiovascular events are associated with significant morbidity. However, current trends in cardiovascular events after kidney transplantation are poorly understood. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study using healthcare databases in Ontario, Canada, to determine whether the incidence of cardiovascular events after kidney transplantation has changed from 1994 to 2009. Our primary endpoint was a 3-year composite outcome of posttransplant death or major cardiovascular event (myocardial infarction, coronary angioplasty, coronary artery bypass graft surgery, stroke). RESULTS: Recipients (n = 4954) were older and had more baseline comorbidity in recent years. A total of 445 recipients (9.0%) died or experienced a major cardiovascular event within 3 years of transplantation. There was no significant change in the incidence of the composite outcome or death-censored cardiovascular events over time (P = 0.41 and 0.92, respectively). After adjusting for age, sex, and comorbidities, the risk of death or major cardiovascular event steadily declined across the years of transplant (2006-2009 adjusted hazard ratio, 0.70; P = 0.009; referent 1994-1997). When recipients were matched on age, sex, and date of cohort entry to members of the general population and to the chronic kidney disease population, the risk was lowest in the general population and highest in the chronic kidney disease population. CONCLUSION: Despite transplant centers accepting recipients who are older with more comorbidities in recent years, the 3-year cumulative incidence of death or major cardiovascular event has remained stable over time.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".