O1-S09.05 Decline in HIV prevalence among young people in the general population of Cotonou, Benin, 1998–2008
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Objective Comparative study of the prevalence of HIV and sexually transmitted infections (STI), and associated behaviours in the general population of Cotonou between 1998 and 2008. Methods In Cotonou, two studies employing similar methods were carried out in 1998 and 2008 respectively. In these studies, the census areas (clusters) were sampled with probability proportional to size. After enumeration of all households in the selected clusters, a certain number of households were randomly sampled from each selected census area (950 in 1998, 1070 in 2008). Consenting adults, aged 15–49 years (but 15–64 years for the men in 2008) were interviewed and screened for HIV, syphilis, and HSV-2 (serologic detection of antibodies for the latter infections), Neisseria gonorrhoeae and Chlamydia trachomatis (nucleic acid amplification assays on uro-genital samples). The Roa-Scott χ 2 was used to consider the cluster effect in the univariate comparison of proportions. Logistic regression (taking into account the cluster effect) was used for multivariate analysis, adjusting for socio-demographic variables. Results The global HIV prevalence was stable (3.4% in 1998 vs 3.1% in 2008). There was however a trend towards decreasing among men (Abstract O1-S09.05 table 1). The decrease was highly significant among men aged less than 30 (3.0% in 1998 vs 0.5% in 2008, p<0.0001). A trend towards decreasing prevalence was also observed among women aged less than 20 (2.4% in 1998 vs 0.5% in 2008, p=0.102). On the other hand, an upward trend was observed among women aged 20+ (3.8 in 1998 vs 4.8% in 2008, p=0.346). Syphilis prevalence also decreased significantly, but this decline was more pronounced among women (Abstract O1-S09.05 table 1). The prevalence of gonorrhoea trended lower among men while prevalence of HSV-2 increased among both men and women (Abstract O1-S09.05 table 1). The proportion of adults who reported condom use during their last extramarital sexual intercourse increased (23.0% in 1998 vs 40.1% in 2008, p<0.0001). Abstract O1-S09.05 Table 1 Multivariate comparison of HIV/STI prevalence between 1998 and 2008 among men and women of the general population of Cotonou aged 15–49 Women Men Overall 1998 (N=1093) 2008 (N=1348) p Value* 1998 (N=1019) 2008 (N=1159) p Value 1998 (N=2112) 2008 (N=2507) p Value HIV 35 (3.5%) 50 (4.0%) 0.3463 31 (3.4%) 21 (2.0%) 0.2385 66 (3.4%) 71 (3.1%) 0.9259 N gonorrheae 9 (0.9%) 10 (0.8%) 0.9292 10 (1.1%) 3 (0.3%) 0.2464 19 (1.0%) 13 (0.6%) 0.5770 C trachomatis 13 (1.3%) 27 (2.2%) 0.0834 21 (2.5%) 23 (2.2%) 0.7977 34 (1.8%) 50 (2.2%) 0.2337 T pallidum 12 (1.3%) 4 (0.3%) 0.0263 16 (1.8%) 9 (0.9%) 0.0986 28 (1.5%) 13 (0.6%) 0.0050 HSV-2 275 (29.5%) 397 (33.2%) 0.2124 103 (11.9%) 181 (18.1%) <0.0001 378 (21.1%) 578 (26.4%) 0.0026 * p Value from the logistic regression analysis taking into account the cluster effect and adjusting for sex (overall analysis only), age, marital status and education level. Discussion The decrease in HIV prevalence among young people could be explained by the increase in condom use and may also be related to the impact of intensive interventions targeting the prostitution milieu during the same period. The upward trend among older women could be related to a large increase in access to antiretroviral therapy that occurred from 2004 onwards.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it