20 years of ClO measurements in the Antarctic lower stratosphere
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. We present 20 years (1996–2015) of austral springtime measurements of chlorine monoxide (ClO) over Antarctica from the Chlorine Oxide Experiment (ChlOE1) ground-based millimeter wave spectrometer at Scott Base, Antarctica, as well 12 years (2004–2015) of ClO measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). From August onwards we observe a strong increase in lower stratospheric ClO, with a peak column amount usually occurring in early September. From mid-September onwards we observe a strong decrease in ClO. In order to study interannual differences, we focus on a 3-week period from 28 August to 17 September for each year and compare the average column ClO anomalies. These column ClO anomalies are shown to be highly correlated with the average ozone mass deficit for September and October of each year. We also show that anomalies in column ClO are strongly anti-correlated with 30 hPa temperature anomalies, both on a daily and an interannual timescale. Making use of this anti-correlation we calculate the linear dependence of the interannual variations in column ClO on interannual variations in temperature. By making use of this relationship, we can better estimate the underlying trend in the total chlorine (Cly = HCl + ClONO2 + HOCl + 2 × Cl2 + 2 × Cl2O2 + ClO + Cl). The resultant trends in Cly, which determine the long-term trend in ClO, are estimated to be −0.5 ± 0.2, −1.4 ± 0.9, and −0.6 ± 0.4 % year−1, for zonal MLS, Scott Base MLS (both 2004–2015), and ChlOE (1996–2015) respectively. These trends are within 1σ of trends in stratospheric Cly previously found at other latitudes. The decrease in ClO is consistent with the trend expected from regulations enacted under the Montreal Protocol.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".