Tree-ring based reconstruction of mean maximum temperatures since AD 1829
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The correlation between tree-ring widths and climate was developed using Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica after which mean maximum temperatures of June–July since 1829 were reconstructed. Results show that the transfer function of temperature explains more than 40% of the variance and that the reconstruction sequence was consistent with several reconstructed temperature variations in the region. Over the past 181 years, climate in the region has undergone eight distinct low temperature and eight high temperature periods. A high temperature period in the 1920s to 1930s is consistent with a drought that occurred in most regions of northern China. Periods of drought in the 1870s were also identified. There was no significant increase or decrease in mean maximum June–July temperatures over the last 181 years, although since the 1950s temperatures have increased gradually. A warming trend has become more pronounced since the early 1990s but temperature levels are not significantly higher than those of the 1850s. A multi-taper spectral analysis shows that there are significant periodicities of 2.4, 2.8, 4.9, 5.1 and 21.3 years in the sequence of reconstructed temperatures. Temperatures were also affected by global climate events and solar activity.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".