Recent Trends in Global Emissions of Hydrochlorofluorocarbons and Hydrofluorocarbons: Reflecting on the 2007 Adjustments to the Montreal Protocol
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Global-scale atmospheric measurements are used to investigate the effectiveness of recent adjustments to production and consumption controls on hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol) and to assess recent projections of large increases in hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) production and emission. The results show that aggregate global HCFC emissions did not increase appreciably during 2007-2012 and suggest that the 2007 Adjustments to the Montreal Protocol played a role in limiting HCFC emissions well in advance of the 2013 cap on global production. HCFC emissions varied between 27 and 29 kt CFC-11-equivalent (eq)/y or 0.76 and 0.79 GtCO2-eq/y during this period. Despite slower than projected increases in aggregate HCFC emissions since 2007, total emissions of HFCs used as substitutes for HCFCs and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) have not increased more rapidly than rates projected [Velders, G. J. M.; Fahey, D. W.; Daniel, J. S.; McFarland, M.; Andersen, S. O. The Large Contribution of Projected HFC Emissions to Future Climate Forcing. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 2009, 106, 10949-10954] for 2007-2012. HFC global emission magnitudes related to this substitution totaled 0.51 (-0.03, +0.04) GtCO2-eq/y in 2012, a magnitude about two times larger than emissions reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for these HFCs. Assuming accurate reporting to the UNFCCC, the results imply that developing countries (non-Annex I Parties) not reporting to the UNFCCC now account for nearly 50% of global HFC emissions used as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). Global HFC emissions (as CO2-eq) from ODS substitution can be attributed approximately equally to mobile air conditioning, commercial refrigeration, and the sum of all other applications.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".