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O me of little faith

2009· article· en· W2330238647 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
David H. Kirkwood

Bibliographic record

VenueThe Hearing Journal · 2009
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldNeuroscience
TopicHearing Loss and Rehabilitation
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsRecessionPessimismFaithQuarter (Canadian coin)BusinessAdvertisingEconomicsHistoryKeynesian economics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Writing in this space a year ago, I was expressing pretty pessimistic thoughts about the hearing industry. With the banking system on the verge of collapse, stock and home prices plummeting, and the economy in recession, I expected hearing aid sales to go down too. I tried to sugar coat the situation, entitling my editorial “Thinking positively about '09,” but I foresaw a possible double-digit drop in sales. Yes, I had heard from some industry old-timers that the hearing industry is recession-proof. But clearly this recession was worse than any other since 1990 when I started writing about hearing care, and I felt sure its effects on our industry would be bad. Well, as it turns, out I was wrong, and I'm glad of it. Granted, in the second half of 2008, sales did go down. But the industry quickly righted itself and, as you will read in this month's Cover Story, sales through the first three quarters of 2009 grew by over 6%. Outside the VA the increase was only a little over 2%, but in the third quarter even that sector rose by 4.3%. These numbers aren't great, but take a look at almost any other industry, and by comparison hearing care is booming. Why is this industry so different? Well, the theory put forth by the experts I consulted for my story is that, despite the conventional wisdom, hearing aids are in most cases not discretionary purchases. Typically, people with hearing loss put off getting hearing aids for as long as they can stand it. When their hearing get so bad they finally take the leap, they are so desperate to hear that not even a bleak economy will stand in their way. A COMFORT—AND A FRUSTRATION If indeed hearing aids are usually purchased out of necessity, not choice, that is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it's reassuring for those who dispense or manufacture hearing aids that demand for their products and services can withstand economic adversity. On the other hand, it is frustrating to realize that when the economy turns around and people go out and buy new cars and houses, most of those who haven't been able to enjoy dinner out or church services for 5 years will still be saying, “My hearing isn't that bad. I don't need a hearing aid yet.” Wouldn't it be great if consumers started to seek hearing help because they believed it would make their lives more enjoyable, not because are afraid if they don't their wife will leave them or they may miss the cry of a grandchild in distress. Clearly we want both types of consumers to take action—those whose hearing has become so bad that amplification is a necessity and those whose hearing isn't that bad, but who have decided the time to hear better is while it is still a matter of choice. ATTITUDES ARE CHANGING To avoid underestimating the prospects for hearing aids again this year, let me point out some evidence that we are moving, slowly but surely, toward the point when acquiring hearing aids is often a thoughtful, informed decision to take control of one's hearing, not an act of last resort. One reason this seems likely to happen more and more is that today's hearing aids work so much better than those of the pre-digital era. That is improving how consumers view these devices. Another positive development is the changing look and image of hearing aids. As all of you know, today's devices often come in bright colors, lively patterns, and pleasing shapes not dreamt of a decade ago. And the industry's marketing often presents hearing aids as attractive devices that vital, youthful people who need help with their hearing shouldn't be embarrassed to be seen with. The rest of the world is beginning to pay attention. For example, as noted in HJ Report, mainstream institutions that a decade ago would not have had hearing aids on their radar screens, are honoring them for outstanding engineering and design. Change is seen in the latest MarkeTrak finding that the hearing aid penetration of the hearing-impaired population in the U.S. crept up to almost 25% in 2008, the highest ever measured and significantly above the 20% rate recorded in 1997. To be sure, progress is much slower than we would like. But little by little, I believe that hearing aids are becoming products that people get because they choose to, not because they feel they have no choice.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Bench or experimental · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.726
Threshold uncertainty score0.150

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.051
GPT teacher head0.304
Teacher spread0.253 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designBench or experimental
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2009
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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