Going from Conceptual to Analytical Drilling/Completions/Reservoir Guided Model of a Cased Uncemented Multi-Fractured Horizontal Well in the Canadian Horn River Basin
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract This paper outlines a drilling, completions reservoir guided analytical model to assess cased uncemented (CUC) multi-fractured horizontal wells (MFHW) in the Canadian Horn River Basin. The typical Horn River shale gas development involves drilling and hydraulically fracturing multiple horizontal wells from a single surface pad location. The wells are hydraulically fractured in a sequential manner from the toe to the heel of the horizontal section, alternating from well to well. This manner of hydraulic fracturing allows concurrent operations that maximize operational efficiency and reduce completion costs. Microseismic (MS) data shows that hydraulic fracture stimulation results in a very complex stimulated reservoir volume (SRV). Surveillance data including MS as well as proppant and fluid tracer data shows that hydraulic fractures reactivate the natural fracture system and can extend beyond inter-well distances. Production analysis however indicates that the effective drainage volume, post stimulation is significantly smaller than what is observed with MS. The objective of the cased uncemented MFHW was to achieve improved productivity over the standard cased cemented horizontal well design. The hypothesis was that the CUC wellbore would have improved connection to the reservoir and the natural fracture system existing within the target shales. In addition, the CUC well would benefit by increased reservoir contact and connection to fractures created from offset wells on the pad. The first experimental well was drilled on Nexen's 18 well pad, completed in 2012. A swellable packer system was conveyed as part of the casing string to isolate each hydraulic fracture stage. A second generation cased uncemented well with mechanical packers was tested in 2013. This paper will discuss how the conceptual model of this new technology can be translated into an analytical model by guiding the workflow with drilling, completions and reservoir understanding and how the surveillance data such as MS, production logs, and tracers validate the process along the way. This approach allows generating production forecasting and reserves estimates of this new technology allowing economics to be run and decision to go forward to be made. Some of the design considerations and production indications will be addressed, concluding with a discussion of the results.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".