Simulation of air and ground temperatures in PMIP3/CMIP5 last millennium simulations: implications for climate reconstructions from borehole temperature profiles
Bibliographic record
Abstract
For climate models to simulate the continental energy storage of the Earth's energy budget they must capture the processes that partition energy across the land-atmosphere boundary. We evaluate herein the thermal consequences of these processes as simulated by models in the third phase of the paleoclimate modelling intercomparison project and the fifth phase of the coupled model intercomparison project (PMIP3/CMIP5). We examine air and ground temperature tracking at decadal and centennial time-scales within PMIP3 last-millennium simulations concatenated to historical simulations from the CMIP5 archive. We find a strong coupling between air and ground temperatures during the summer from 850 to 2005 CE. During the winter, the insulating effect of snow and latent heat exchanges produce a decoupling between the two temperatures in the northern high latitudes. Additionally, we use the simulated ground surface temperatures as an upper boundary condition to drive a one-dimensional conductive model in order to derive synthetic temperature-depth profiles for each PMIP3/CMIP5 simulation. Inversion of these subsurface profiles yields temperature trends that retain the low-frequency variations in surface air temperatures over the last millennium for all the PMIP3/CMIP5 simulations regardless of the presence of seasonal decoupling in the simulations. These results demonstrate the robustness of surface temperature reconstructions from terrestrial borehole data and their interpretation as indicators of past surface air temperature trends and continental energy storage.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".