Speeding up call center simulation and optimization by Markov chain uniformization
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Staffing and scheduling optimization in large multi-skill call centers is time-consuming, mainly because it requires lengthy simulations to evaluate performance measures and their sensitivity. Simplified models that provide tractable formulas are unrealistic in general. In this paper we explore an intermediate solution, based on an approximate continuous-time Markov chain model of the call center. This model is more accurate than the commonly used approximations, and yet can be simulated faster than a more realistic simulation (based on non-exponential distributions and additional details). To speed up the simulation, we uniformize the Markov chain and simulate only its discrete-time version. We show how performance measures such as the fraction of calls of each type answered within a given waiting time limit can be recovered from this simulation, how to synchronize common random numbers in this setting, and how to use this in the first phase of an optimization algorithm based on the cutting plane method. We also discuss various implementation issues and provide empirical results.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.012 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".