MODEL BOX- JENKINS DALAM RANGKA PERAMALAN PRODUK DOMESTIK REGIONAL BRUTO PROVINSI BALI
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Box-Jenkins Models in the Framework to Forecast Bali Province Gross Domestic Product. Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ) is the most widely used indikator of development. In order to make development plan of an area with effective and responsible principal, it required a valid estimate of GDP. The presence of relatifly large gap between targets and achievements of the Bali Provincial economic growth during 2008-2012, and given the importance of GDP as an indikator of regional economic performance, it is necessary to do research on the application of Box-Jenkins models in order to forecast Bali Province GDP. This study aims to create a model of the Bali Provincial GDP estimates using data from the first quarter of GDP in 2000 to fourth quarter of GDP in 2012 with constant prices of 2000, which is sourced from BPS of Bali Province. The analysis technique is applied to the Box- Jenkins models or Autoregresive Integreted Moving Average (ARIMA).The results showed that by using the data of Bali Provincial GDP first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2012, concluded that the best model to use as a forecast model is ARIMA (2,1,0). Keywords : GDP , Autoregresive Integreted Moving Average
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.004 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".