Investigation of causes of the 10-year hare cycle
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This thesis combined data from a trapping and radio-telemetry study of snowshoe hares at Kluane Lake, Yukon from January 1984 through August 1985 with data collected at the same site from 1977-83 (Boutin et al. 1986; Krebs et al. 1986) to examine possible causes for the 10-year cycle in density of snowshoe hares. In Chapter 2 I used data on causes of mortality, from a radio-telemetry study of a cyclic snowshoe hare population during 1978-84, to consider the importance of predation in causing the hare cycle. I found that predation during winter was the largest source of mortality for snowshoe hares during 1978-84. There was a 1-year lag in the response of predation mortality to changing hare density. There was a 2-year lag in the response to changing density of mortality due to causes other than predation. I incorporated this information on causes of mortality into a simulation model, to see whether observed predation mortality can cause changes in density similar to those of a cyclic population. I fitted the predation mortality data to a function in which total predator response consists of a Type II functional response and a delayed density-dependent numerical response. Using a simulation model that predicted mortality rates with this function, I produced 8-11 year cycles within parameter values measured in this study. In Chapter 3 I compared a non-cyclic snowshoe hare population on Jacquot Island in Kluane Lake, with a cyclic population on the mainland, 40 km to the SE. I use trapping data from both mainland and island sites, for a period that included population increase, peak, and decline (1977-85) to test hypotheses of conditions sufficient to cause a hare population cycle. I also presented results from a radio-telemetry study, conducted on both mainland and island during a population low on the mainland (1984-85). The hypothesis that high rates of recruitment followed by low rates of recruitment, is sufficient to cause a cycle was not supported. Data presented was consistent with hypotheses that any one of the following conditions was sufficient to cause the hare cycle: 1. High rates of survival followed by low rates of survival, particularly of juveniles 2. Delayed density-dependent predation 3. Periodic food shortage.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it