Changes in Inflation Persistence Prior and Subsequent to the Subprime Crisis: What are the Implications for South Africa?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The appropriateness of the inflation targeting regime as a policy framework for the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) continues to be a furiously debated topic for both academics and policymakers alike. In this study, we approach this debate by examining whether there have been any changes in the persistence of the inflation process for periods prior and subsequent to the global financial crisis. By effect, our study attempts to answer the question of whether inflation targets have been successful in controlling inflation rates in the face of unanticipated financial crisis. Indeed, our empirical results indicate that persistence in the inflation process has decreased in periods subsequent to the subprime crisis, and yet this has been accompanied by decreases in economic growth and unchanged high levels of unemployment. Our study ultimately suggests that given the current status of the economy, inflation may be required to be lowered to close-to-zero levels which will have to be accompanied with higher levels of economic growth, separate macroeconomic policies which specifically target unemployment and a change in domestic real interest rates.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".