Calibrating aquatic microfossil proxies with regression-tree ensembles: Cross-validation with modern chironomid and diatom data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We examine the ability of four different regression-tree ensemble techniques (bagging, random forest, rotation forest and boosted tree) in calibration of aquatic microfossil proxies. The methods are tested with six chironomid and diatom datasets, using a variety of cross-validation schemes. We find random forest, rotation forest and the boosted tree to have a similar performance, while bagging performs less well and in several cases has trouble producing continuous predictions. In comparison with commonly used parametric transfer-function approaches (PLS, WA, WA-PLS), we find that in some cases tree-ensemble methods outperform the best-performing transfer-function technique, especially with large datasets characterized by complex taxon responses and abundant noise. However, parametric transfer functions remain competitive with datasets characterized by low number of samples or linear taxon responses. We present an implementation of the rotation forest algorithm in R.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.009 | 0.010 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".