Six-year trajectories of post-traumatic stress and severe psychological distress symptoms and associations with timing of trauma exposure, ongoing adversity and sense of injustice: a latent transition analysis of a community cohort in conflict-affected Timor-Leste
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To identify the 6-year trajectories of post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) and psychological distress symptoms, and examine for associations with timing of trauma exposure, ongoing adversity and with the sense of injustice in conflict-affected Timor-Leste. SETTING: A whole-of-household survey was conducted in 2004 and 2010 in Dili, the capital of Timor-Leste. PARTICIPANTS: 1022 adults were followed up over 6 years (retention rate 84.5%). Interviews were conducted by field workers applying measures of traumatic events (TEs), ongoing adversity, a sense of injustice, PTS symptoms and psychological distress. RESULTS: Latent transition analysis supported a 3-class longitudinal model (psychological distress, comorbid symptoms and low symptoms). We derived 4 composite trajectories comprising recovery (20.8%), a persisting morbidity trajectory (7.2%), an incident trajectory (37.2%) and a low-symptom trajectory (34.7%). Compared with the low-symptom trajectory, the persistent and incident trajectories reported greater stress arising from poverty and family conflict, higher TE exposure for 2 historical periods, and a sense of injustice for 2 historical periods. The persistent trajectory was unique in reporting greater TE exposure in the Indonesian occupation, whereas the incident trajectory reported greater TE exposure during the later internal conflict that occurred between baseline and follow-up. Compared with the low-symptom trajectory, the incident trajectory reported a greater sense of injustice relating to the periods of the Indonesian occupation and independence. The persistent trajectory was characterised by a sense of injustice relating to the internal conflict and contemporary times. The recovery trajectory was characterised by the absence of these risk factors, the only difference from the low-symptom trajectory being that the former reported a sense of injustice for the period surrounding independence. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the timing of both TE exposure and the focus of a sense of injustice may differentiate those with persisting and new-onset mental health morbidity in settings of recurrent conflict.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".