Locally driven interannual variability of near‐surface pH and Ω<sub><i>A</i></sub> in the Strait of Georgia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Declines in mean ocean pH and aragonite saturation state (ΩA) driven by anthropogenic CO2 emissions have raised concerns regarding the trends of pH and ΩA in estuaries. Low pH and ΩA can be harmful to a variety of marine organisms, especially those with calcium carbonate shells, and so may threaten the productive ecosystems and commercial fisheries found in many estuarine environments. The Strait of Georgia is a large, temperate, productive estuarine system with numerous wild and aquaculture shellfish and finfish populations. We determine the seasonality and variability of near‐surface pH and ΩA in the Strait using a one‐dimensional, biophysical, mixing layer model. We further evaluate the sensitivity of these quantities to local wind, freshwater, and cloud forcing by running the model over a wide range of scenarios using 12 years of observations. Near‐surface pH and ΩA demonstrate strong seasonal cycles characterized by low pH, aragonite‐undersaturated waters in winter and high pH, aragonite‐supersaturated waters in summer. The aragonite saturation horizon generally lies at ∼20 m depth except in winter and during strong Fraser River freshets when it shoals to the surface. Periods of strong interannual variability in pH and aragonite saturation horizon depth arise in spring and summer. We determine that at different times of year, each of wind speed, freshwater flux, and cloud fraction are the dominant drivers of this variability. These results establish the mechanisms behind the emerging observations of highly variable near‐surface carbonate chemistry in the Strait.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".