Equatorial mountain lakes show extended periods of thermal stratification with climate warming
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
<p>Warming in the Andes has already affected phenology, glaciology, and other ecosystem changes, and now threatens to alter long-standing fundamental limnological properties. In the equatorial Andes, most lakes have traditionally been characterized by waters that circulate continuously, with only rare episodes of stratification. This categorization, albeit based on relatively few studies, has scarcely been challenged in light of accelerated regional warming that has occurred over the past 30 years.Here, we show that protracted periods of thermal stratification are presently the norm, not the exception, in equatorial mountain lakes. Annual circulation and stratification patterns recorded in four lakes from Ecuador’s southern Sierra show extended periods of stratification, which are stable and do not break down with nocturnal cooling. These data contrast earlier research from this region, which reported full water column mixing and only infrequent stratification, but are consistent with recent trends of rising temperatures and declining wind velocities. Paleolimnological studies show that changes to the thermal regimes of these lakes likely began several decades ago and have resulted in ecosystem-scale changes including regime shifts in phytoplankton and declines in aquatic production.</p>
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it