Equatorial mountain lakes show extended periods of thermal stratification with climate warming
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Warming in the Andes has already affected phenology, glaciology, and other ecosystem changes, and now threatens to alter long-standing fundamental limnological properties. In the equatorial Andes, most lakes have traditionally been characterized by waters that circulate continuously, with only rare episodes of stratification. This categorization, albeit based on relatively few studies, has scarcely been challenged in light of accelerated regional warming that has occurred over the past 30 years.Here, we show that protracted periods of thermal stratification are presently the norm, not the exception, in equatorial mountain lakes. Annual circulation and stratification patterns recorded in four lakes from Ecuador’s southern Sierra show extended periods of stratification, which are stable and do not break down with nocturnal cooling. These data contrast earlier research from this region, which reported full water column mixing and only infrequent stratification, but are consistent with recent trends of rising temperatures and declining wind velocities. Paleolimnological studies show that changes to the thermal regimes of these lakes likely began several decades ago and have resulted in ecosystem-scale changes including regime shifts in phytoplankton and declines in aquatic production.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".