Determinants of healthcare expenditures in Iran: evidence from a time series analysis.
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: A dramatic increase in healthcare expenditures is a major health policy concern worldwide. Understanding factors that underlie the growth in healthcare expenditures is essential to assist decision-makers in finding best policies to manage healthcare costs. We aimed to examine the determinants of healthcare spending in Iran over the periods of 1978-2011. METHODS: A time series analysis was used to examine the effect of selected socio-economic, demographic and health service input on per capita healthcare expenditures (HCE) in Iran from 1978 to 2011. Data were retrieved from the Central Bank of Iran, Iranian Statistical Center and World Bank. Autoregressive distributed lag approach and error correction method were employed to examine long- and short-run effects of covariates. RESULTS: Our findings indicated that the GDP per capita, degree of urbanization and illiteracy rate increase healthcare expenditures, while physician per 10,000 populations and proportion of population aged≥ 65 years decrease healthcare expenditures. In addition, we found that healthcare spending is a "necessity good" with long- and short-run income (GDP per capita), elasticities of 0.46 (p<0.01) and 0.67 (p = 0.01), respectively. CONCLUSION: Our analysis identified GDP per capita, illiteracy rate, degree of urbanization and number of physicians as some of the driving forces behind the persistent increase in HCE in Iran. These findings provide important insights into the growth in HCE in Iran. In addition, since we found that health spending is a "necessity good" in Iran, healthcare services should thus be the object of public funding and government intervention.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it