The Main Determinants of Chinese House Turnover and Price:An Analysis of Effects of the Policies on Housing Market
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper analyzed the quarterly data of Chinese macro economy,housing market and land market from the first quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of 2010 through unit root test,simultaneous equations model and three stage least squares(3SLS) based on macro-policy for regulating housing market in the last ten years.The results show that the main determinants which affect Chinese house turnover in turn are house price,money supply(M2),land supply quantity,per capita disposable income of urban residents and completed residential areas,that the main determinants which affect Chinese house price in turn are GDP,land price and secondhand house price,but CPI is not one of the main factors that push up the house price,and that administrative means and fiscal policies on controlling house price are effective but their effect is not strong(elasticity-0.011),however,monetary policies on controlling house turnover are strongly effective(elasticity 2.965).Thus we suggest that the regulation for housing prices should mainly consider monetary policies and that regional housing prices and housing turnover growth rate should coincide with regional GDP growth rate.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".