The Study on the Global BSE Developing Risk Based on Bernoulli Distribution
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The global pattern of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy(BSE) risks status was explored and discussed in this article.Based on GIS techniques and the theory of probability risk assessment,the studies on risk assessment of global-scaled BSE status were carried out.The results were as follows:(1) BSE cattle populations mainly existed in the countries that livestock populations were highly industrialized.Trend on increasingly globalization and industrialization can greatly facilitate the dispersion of the release exposure risks of BSE agents around the world.(2) Globally,the high density of cattle inventory were mainly distributed in the subcontinent of southern Asia(included Indian,Thailand,Myanmar and Pakistan),southern Europe,Ethiopia of Africa and south American region,highly concentration of cattle inventory can make BSE exposure risks dramatically increased in given released BSE risks.(3) From global scale,BSE reached the zenith of its epidemiological spreading in the 1992,in which year BSE prevalence come to be 3.0×10-5 probability level,mean that there should at least have thirty heads of cattle to be BSE positive among one million randomly selected cattle.In Europe scale,BSE pandemic got its zenith between 1992 to 1993,corresponding prevalence come to be 4.28×10-4 and 4.13×10-4 respectively,which mean that there should at least have 400-500 heads of cattle to be BSE positive among one million randomly selected cattle.It could be reasonable assumed that 1992-1993 should be the highest BSE risk period in EU and the world,in which interval,bovine and its bovine related products within EU can bring significant BSE risks to the import region and country outside EU.Currently,the highest BSE risk still exists in EU region,including Belgium,Czechic,Danmark,France,German,Ireland,Italy,Netherlands,Poland,Portugal,Slovak,Spain,Switzerland and UK,and Japan of Asian,all above countries could have new emerged BSE cases theoretically.Second ranked risk region were in Slovenia,Canada,Sweden,Luxemburg and USA,in which countries,the expected BSE risk for at least one head BSE positive cattle to be 0.800 9.Besides,Finland and Greece also have some expected BSE risks in their cattle populations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.014 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".