A Study on the Shock Effect of Uncertain Events in International Trade
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper not only decomposes the stochastic shock of the import and export trade with Beveridge-Nelson decomposition,but also analyzes the impact effect of stochastic shock to China's economic growth with impulse response function.It can be concluded that: firstly,among the stochastic shocks caused by uncertainty issues in home and abroad,abroad ones have more influence to China's international trade,especially those economic shocks such as international financial crisis;secondly,the current international financial crisis started its impact to trade form January 2009 with quarter shock of-0.089 which accounts for-0.87% of import and export trade and makes a lost of 92.5 billion at least;lastly,while stochastic shock affects international trade negatively,it also makes a shock to China's economic growth and induces 17% of economic volatility in one year.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it