Numbers of working carers whose employment is 'at risk' in England
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Recent evidence suggests that a key threshold at which carers in England are at risk of leaving employment occurs when unpaid care is provided for 10 or more hours a week, a lower threshold than previously thought. Previous studies had shown that providing care for 20 or more hours a week had a negative effect on employment. One implication is that there are more working carers whose employment is at risk than previously thought. This paper aims to estimate the numbers of working carers whose employment is at risk because they provide care for 10 or more hours a week. A subsidiary aim is to estimate the numbers of working carers providing care for 10 or more hours a week to someone in a private household. Using the 2011 Population Census, Understanding Society (2010/11) and the Survey of Carers in Households (2009/10), we find that there are approximately 790,000 working carers aged 16-64 whose employment is at risk because they provide care for 10 or more hours a week. Of these, approximately 735,000 provide care to someone in a private household. There are nearly a quarter of a million more carers whose employment is at risk than previously thought.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".