The constructing principle of event tree method and its application in risk analysis for dykes and dams
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The constructing principle and method of the event tree is put forward and the probability calculation of branch events is introduced.The event tree method can easily take various kinds of random factors into consideration in reliability analysis of systematic structures.Due to its flexibility in dealing with natural variability and uncertain knowledge,the event tree method is widely used in the field of risk analysis for dykes and dams in countries such as Canada and Australia.A case study on a dyke risk analysis is given in this paper.Three failure modes are supposed,i.e.overtopping,structural stability failure and erosion of foundation.The uncertain factors influencing the given three failure modes and their quantification are interpreted in detail.The result of the analysis reveals the advantages of the event tree method in risk analysis for dykes and dams.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it