Quantifying atmospheric methane emissions from oil and natural gas production in the Bakken shale region of North Dakota
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We present in situ airborne measurements of methane (CH 4 ) and ethane (C 2 H 6 ) taken aboard a NOAA DHC‐6 Twin Otter research aircraft in May 2014 over the Williston Basin in northwestern North Dakota, a region of rapidly growing oil and natural gas production. The Williston Basin is best known for the Bakken shale formation, from which a significant increase in oil and gas extraction has occurred since 2009. We derive a CH 4 emission rate from this region using airborne data by calculating the CH 4 enhancement flux through the planetary boundary layer downwind of the region. We calculate CH 4 emissions of (36 ± 13), (27 ± 13), (27 ± 12), (27 ± 12), and (25 ± 10) × 10 3 kg/h from five transects on 3 days in May 2014 downwind of the Bakken shale region of North Dakota. The average emission, (28 ± 5) × 10 3 kg/h, extrapolates to 0.25 ± 0.05 Tg/yr, which is significantly lower than a previous estimate of CH 4 emissions from northwestern North Dakota and southeastern Saskatchewan using satellite remote sensing data. We attribute the majority of CH 4 emissions in the region to oil and gas operations in the Bakken based on the similarity between atmospheric C 2 H 6 to CH 4 enhancement ratios and the composition of raw natural gas withdrawn from the region.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".