Effect of management earnings forecasts on the efficiency of the Chinese stock market:Evidence based on the accrual anomaly
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper examines whether the compulsory disclosure policy can improve the efficiency of the Chinese stock market.Hedge portfolios are formed according to the deciles of accounting accruals with a long position on the lowest and a short position on the highest.Results from a large sample show that abnormal returns of the hedge portfolios formed on firms with management earnings forecasts in third-quarter reports are significantly positive(9%) over the first half year but insignificantly different from zero the whole one year.Abnormal returns of the hedge portfolios formed on firms that did not make management earnings forecasts in third-quarter reports show the opposite results.Moreover,the results are robust in multivariate regressions.Therefore,regulatory management earnings forecasts can help investors correct accrual mispricing earlier and improve stock market efficiencies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".