An Empirical Study on Aggregate Supply Shocks,Aggregate Demand Shocks and Economic Fluctuations in China
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper builds up AD-AS model based on BQ long run constraint using output and price quarterly data from the 1 quarter of 1994 to the 2 quarter of 2012,in order to analyze the effect of supply and demand shocks on Chinese economic fluctuations,and check the impulse response of economic growth and price to supply and demand shocks.The empirical study finds that the aggregate supply and aggregate demand's standard deviation is large,and the aggregate demand shock's standard deviation is larger,which shows there exists economy fluctuation in the sample period.Impulse response analysis shows that,supply shocks have positive permanent effects on output,and aggregate demand shocks have positive short effects on output.For the price,supply shocks have negative permanent effects and demand shocks have positive permanent effects.Since 2011,China's economic growth continues to slow,mainly because of negative supply and demand shocks;what's more the negative impact of the supply shock is more significant.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".