Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies: an advanced envelope‐based selection approach
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Machine scores (provisional)
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- Teacher spread
- 0.288 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
- Validation status
score_only:v0-immature-baseline· verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it
Abstract
ABSTRACT Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change impact study. The selection of climate models is not straightforward and can be done by following different methods. Usually, the selection is either based on the entire range of changes in climatic variables as projected by the total ensemble of available climate models or on the skill of climate models to simulate past climate. The present study combines these approaches in a three‐step sequential climate model selection procedure: (1) initial selection of climate models based on the range of projected changes in climatic means, (2) refined selection based on the range of projected changes in climatic extremes and (3) final selection based on the climate model skill to simulate past climate. This procedure is illustrated for a study area covering the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins. Subsequently, the changes in climate between 1971–2000 and 2071–2100 are analysed, showing that the future climate projections in this area are highly uncertain but that changes are imminent.
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The record
- Venue
- International Journal of Climatology
- Topic
- Climate variability and models
- Field
- Environmental Science
- Canadian institutions
- —
- Funders
- Department for International DevelopmentInternational Development Research Centre
- Keywords
- Climate changeClimate modelClimatologySelection (genetic algorithm)Environmental scienceRange (aeronautics)DownscalingTransient climate simulationGeneral Circulation ModelComputer scienceEcologyGeology
- Has abstract in OpenAlex
- yes