Causes for Return Volatility in Chinese Housing Markets Based on Dynamic Gordon Model
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The vector autoregression model consisting of housing market return,rental growth,interest rate and per capita disposable income growth was established based on dynamic Gordon model.And the reasons for return volatility in the housing market were analyzed with the data of five major Chinese cities from the second quarter of 1999 to the second quarter of 2011.The results indicate that the news of rental growth contributes the most to return volatility in Chinese housing market,followed by the news of interest rate,and their correlation weakens the volatility in the market return;the news of interest rate has longer impacts on return volatility than the news of expected return and rental growth;the responses of housing market return to various news in these cities show differences in terms of intensity and speed.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it