Robust Inference in Two‐phase Sampling Designs with Application to Unit Nonresponse
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Influential units occur frequently in surveys, especially in business surveys that collect economic variables whose distributions are highly skewed. A unit is said to be influential when its inclusion or exclusion from the sample has an important impact on the sampling error of estimates. We extend the concept of conditional bias attached to a unit and propose a robust version of the double expansion estimator, which depends on a tuning constant. We determine the tuning constant that minimizes the maximum estimated conditional bias. Our results can be naturally extended to the case of unit nonresponse, the set of respondents often being viewed as a second‐phase sample. A robust version of calibration estimators, based on auxiliary information available at both phases, is also constructed.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it