ANALISIS PERILAKU INSTABILITAS PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN KETERKAITAN EKONOMI MAKRO, PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL DAN SEKTOR PERTANIAN
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In general the aim of this study is to investigate short-run relationships among macroeconomy, international trade and agriculture in Indonesia. Under such circumstances, the specific goals of this research is to analyze whicheconomic blocks that have most affected by instability, as well as producing instability in the economy.We apply the Vector Error Correction Model on monthly series data from 1993:01 to 2002:12. The main resultof this study shows asfollow: 1) that the asset financial and the commodity demand blocks the most producing instability in the economy. On the other hand, the export block producing the least instability to the economy. The finding suggest that government should concentrate attention on asset financial andthe commodity demand blocks in stabilizing the economy, as they are major sources of instability of the economy.2) To stabilize the commodity demand, it is also necessary to stabilize the financial market, as the assets demand block is the most contributor of the instability in the commodity demand block. In other words, money demand is the main source of instability. Because money supply is determined bygovernment, the disequlibrium error measure the excess supply of money in the market. This suggest that monetary policy that reduces the disequlibrium error can help stabilize the economy.JEL Classification: C22, F17, Q11, Q18Keyword: Instabilitas, Disequilibrium Error, perdagangan internasional, pertanian, VECM, fiscal policy
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".