Application of a coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system to real-time flood forecast
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system is established over the Huaihe River Basin for predicting severe precipitation and real-time flood forecast.This system is the high-resolution regional atmospheric MC2 (Canadian Mesoscale Compressible Community) model that is one-way coupled to the Xinanjiang hydrological model.The system was tested for the July 4 to 15,2005 severe flood event in real-time over the basin.The MC2 precipitation is first evaluated using observations from rain gauges over the Wangjiaba sub-region.The Xinanjiang model flood forecast is then validated with the observed hydrograph at the Wangjiaba Station.MC2 performs reasonably well in predicting severe precipitation with the forecast lead time up to 96-h.The flood forecast using MC2 precipitation shows a good result of flood timing and peak discharges at the Wangjiaba Station.The encouraging result obtained in this study demonstrates the potential of using mesoscale model precipitation for real-time flood forecast,which provides a longer flood lead time compared to many traditional methods.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".