Combined analysis of temperature and rainfall variability as they relate to climate indices in Northern Algeria over the 1972–2013 period
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Many studies have highlighted breaks in mean values of temperature and precipitation time series since the 1970s. Given that temperatures have continued to increase following that decade, the first question addressed in this study is whether other breaks in mean values have occurred since that time. The second question is to determine which climate indices influence temperature and rainfall in the coastal region of Northern Algeria. To address these two questions, we analyzed the temporal variability of temperature and annual and seasonal rainfall as they relate to four climate indices at seven coastal stations in Algeria during the 1972–2013 period using the Mann–Kendall, Lombard, and canonical correlation (CC) analysis methods.The annual and seasonal maximum, minimum and mean temperatures increased significantly over that time period. Most of these increases are gradual, implying a slow warming trend. In contrast, total annual and seasonal rainfall did not show any significant change. CC analysis revealed that annual and seasonal temperatures are negatively correlated with the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMOI) climate index that characterizes atmospheric circulation over the Mediterranean basin. On the other hand, rainfall is positively correlated with a large-scale atmospheric index such as the Southern Oscillation Index.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it