Repeated salivary daytime cortisol and onset of mood episodes in offspring of bipolar parents
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Differences in cortisol secretion may differentiate individuals at high compared to low genetic risk for bipolar disorder (BD) and predict the onset or recurrence of mood episodes. The objectives of this study were to determine if salivary cortisol measures are: (1) different in high-risk offspring of parents with BD (HR) compared to control offspring of unaffected parents (C), (2) stable over time, (3) associated with the development of mood episode onset/recurrence, and (4) influenced by comorbid complications. METHODS: Fifty-three HR and 22 C completed salivary cortisol sampling annually for up to 4 years in conjunction with semi-structured clinical interviews. The cortisol awakening response (CAR), daytime cortisol [area under the curve (AUC)], and evening cortisol (8:00 p.m.) were calculated. RESULTS: There were no differences in baseline CAR, AUC and evening cortisol between HR and C (p = 0.38, p = 0.30 and p = 0.84), respectively. CAR, AUC and evening cortisol were stable over yearly assessments in HR, while in Cs, evening cortisol increased over time (p = 0.008), and CAR and AUC remained stable. In HR, AUC and evening cortisol increased the hazard of a new onset mood disorder/recurrence by 2.7 times (p = 0.01), and 3.5 times (p = 0.01), respectively, but this was no longer significant after accounting for multiple comparisons. CONCLUSIONS: Salivary cortisol is stable over time within HR offspring. However, between individuals, basal salivary cortisol is highly variable. More research is needed, with larger samples of prospectively studied HR youth using a more reliable method of cortisol measurement, to determine the potential role of cortisol in the development of mood disorders.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it