A periodic matrix population model for monarch butterflies
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The migration pattern of the eastern monarch butterfly ( Danaus plexippus ) consists of a sequence of generations of butterflies that originate in Mexico each spring, travel as far north as Southern Canada, and ultimately return to the original location in Mexico the following fall. Estimates of monarch populations in the Oyamel firs in Mexico have caused concern within the scientific community about the long‐term stability of this phenomenon. We use periodic population matrices to model the life cycle of the eastern monarch butterfly and find that, under this linear model, this migration is not currently at risk. We extend the model to address the three primary obstacles for the long‐term survival of this migratory pattern: deforestation in Mexico, increased extreme weather patterns, and milkweed decline. Incorporating these obstacles into the model shows that there is a definite need to take action to alleviate the aforementioned obstacles.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it