Proč centrální banky systematicky podstřelují svůj cíl [Why central banks undershoot their inflation targets]
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The goal of this article is to explain why central undershoot their inflation targets as we can observe also in the case of the Czech Republic. In other words, I am trying to find out if this undershooting is due to unpredictable desinflation shocks or due to asymmetric behaviour of central banks. Specifically, positive deviations from the target (i.e. overshooting) are weighted more in central banks loss function than the negative ones. It is shown that the Czech National Bank is asymmetric in its preferences but not so much as in the case of Canada, Sweden and the United Kingdom. On the other hand, some part of undershooting attributes to desinflation shocks hitting the Czech economy.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.005 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it