PM2.5 and Diabetes and Hypertension Incidence in the Black Women’s Health Study
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Clinical studies have shown that exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) can increase insulin resistance and blood pressure. The epidemiologic evidence for an association of PM2.5 exposure with the incidence of type 2 diabetes or hypertension is inconsistent. Even a modest association would have great public health importance given the ubiquity of exposure and high prevalence of the conditions. METHODS: We used Cox proportional hazards models to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident type 2 diabetes and hypertension associated with exposure to PM2.5 in a large cohort of African American women living in 56 metropolitan areas across the US, using data from the Black Women's Health Study. Pollutant levels were estimated at all residential locations over follow-up with a hybrid model incorporating land use regression and Bayesian Maximum Entropy techniques. RESULTS: During 1995 to 2011, 4,387 cases of diabetes and 9,570 cases of hypertension occurred. In models controlling for age, questionnaire cycle, and metro area, there were positive associations with diabetes (HR = 1.13, 95% CI = 1.04, 1.24) and hypertension (HR = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.00, 1.12) per interquartile range of PM2.5 (2.9 μg/m). Multivariable HRs, however, were 0.99 (95% CI = 0.90, 1.09) for diabetes and 0.99 (95% CI = 0.93, 1.06) for hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide little support for an association of PM2.5 with diabetes or hypertension incidence.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.011 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it