Europa und die Weltwirtschaft: globale Konjunktur ist weiter gedämpft: Sommergrundlinien 2016
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The world economy has yet to regain momentum: after the already weak final quarter of 2015, the pace of expansion slowed down again in the first quarter of 2016. In the emerging countries’ economies, the pace of expansion is expected to remain subdued, especially in China, where the gradual slowdown continues as overcapacities are reduced. Russia and Brazil are likely to remain in recession: apart from the still-low commodity prices, domestic issues are aggravating the situation. Growth is just barely stable in the industrialized countries, which means they cannot compensate for the emerging countries’ weaknesses. In the industrialized countries, the primary growth driver is still domestic demand. Strong consumption growth is expected in the US as well as in the euro area, primarily as a result of the improving labor market situation. All in all, the global economic growth rate is expected to be 3.2 percent in 2016, which is lower than previously forecasted. The uncertainty about China’s future economic development and the potential impact of a Brexit are the primary risks that are curbing optimism. Die Weltwirtschaft kommt weiterhin nicht in Fahrt. Nach dem bereits schwachen Jahresende 2015 hat sich das Expansionstempo im Auftaktquartal 2016 erneut verlangsamt. In den Schwellenländern dürfte die Konjunktur auch weiterhin gedämpft bleiben. Vor allem in China setzt sich die graduelle Wachstumsabschwächung im Zuge des Abbaus von Überkapazitäten fort. Russland und Brasilien dürften in der Rezession bleiben; neben den nach wie vor niedrigen Rohstoffpreisen tun hausgemachte Probleme ihr Übriges. Die entwickelten Volkswirtschaften können dies nicht ausgleichen, da die Konjunktur hier lediglich stabil verläuft. Hauptstütze bleibt dort die Binnennachfrage. Vor allem in den USA, aber auch im Euroraum ist mit kräftigen Konsumzuwächsen zu rechnen, die insbesondere aus der sich verbessernden Lage am Arbeitsmarkt resultieren. Unter dem Strich dürfte am Ende dieses Jahres mit 3, 2 Prozent ein geringeres Wachstum der globalen Wirtschaftsleistung stehen als noch zuletzt erwartet. Insbesondere die Unsicherheit über die weitere konjunkturelle Entwicklung in China und die möglichen Auswirkungen eines Brexits bremsen den Optimismus.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.103 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".