The Impact of Changes in the Exchange Rates and Money Supply towards Inflation in the ASEAN 5: Threshold Model Application
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Great attention towards inflation has been paid since several ASEAN countries adopted inflation targeting in the early 2000s. As one of the instrument of monetary policy, exchange rates and the money supply become one of the determinant for inflation stability in several countries. Using threshold model, this paper examines whether the impact of exchange rates and money supply towards the inflation is linear. Next, it also tests the threshold value, the number of identified threshold value, and the impact towards the inflation in ASEAN 5 countries. Data collected from ASEAN 5 countries, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore and the Philippines, from the first quarter of the year 2000 until the fourth quarter of the year 2014. Two Stage Least Square and Generalized Method of Moment are applied as the tools for the analysis. Findings demonstrate strong evidences for threshold effect caused by the growth of money supply towards inflation. However, threshold effect does not exist in the depreciation of exchange rates and inflation. Further, empirical evidences show that the impact of money supply growth towards inflation is not linear, meanwhile the impact of changes in exchange rates towards inflation is considered linear in ASEAN 5.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".