The impact of annual wages on interprovincial mobility, interprovincial employment, and job vacancies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study estimates the causal impact of real after-tax annual wages and salaries on the propensity of young men to migrate to Alberta or to accept jobs in that province while maintaining residence in their home province. To do so, it exploits the cross-provincial variation in earnings growth plausibly induced by increases in world oil prices that occurred during the 2000s. Using data that cover the 2001-to-2008 period, the study shows that a five per cent increase in real average annual wages in Alberta relative to those in other provinces increased the probability of young unmarried men moving to Alberta by roughly 0.35 percentage points, from a baseline rate of 0.64 per cent. The estimated increase in the migration of young men induced by changes in the regional earnings structure represents 12 per cent to 24 per cent of the job vacancies observed in Alberta during this period. There is also evidence - although sensitive to functional form - that changes in the regional earnings structure increased transitions into interprovincial employment.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".